This chart shows the predicted price of lithium-ion batteries by the Energy Information Agency (part of the US Department of Energy), Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Navigant, a technology consulting group. Each of these groups predicted where battery prices would be from 2013 through 2048.

So, how accurate have their predictions been four years out? Let’s look:

EIA – $575 per kWh
BENF – $450 per kWh
Navigant – $400 per kWh

Average – $475 per kWh

Right, so what was the actual price? Well, we are not sure, but the best guess based on industry watchers who have taken Tesla cars apart and priced the components, the best estimate is $227 per kWh, meaning the EIA missed the number by a mile, and even the average was more than twice the actual. But what is the price actually? According to Tesla probably somewhere around $124 per kWh.

If true, “experts” need to seriously re-evaluate their price prediction methodology.

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